Prior mode estimation template
The Prior Mode Estimation Template is a tool designed to assist in establishing the prior mode during Stage 3 of SQUEAC assessments.
Establishing the prior mode:
The first step in expressing the prior information as a probability density is to make an informed guess about the most likely coverage value (the mode of the probability density) given the prior information. There are a number of methods which can be used to do this:
- Simple, Weighted and Community Boosters and Barriers
- Histogram of belief
- Concept map
The results of the above exercises (the totals of the boosters and barriers in each exercise), can be added to the Prior mode estimation template in order to generate an average prior mode.
These exercises return a first credible value for the mode of the prior and should be reviewed by returning to the prior information and, if necessary, recalculated or adjusted. The mode of the prior may be changed any time before surveyors start collecting information for the likelihood survey.